Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
